The unprecedented decision to "reflect" on his continuity as Prime Minister opens up a scenario that is as unlikely as it is uncertain.
The surprise came as a surprise. Not even in the PSOE they knew (or so they say). Pedro Sánchez announced that he is cancelling his schedule for four days in order to "reflect and decide which path to take" regarding his continuation as President of the European Parliament. Spanish Government. The measure is as unique as it is implausible in our country. Never before has any public official, and even less so at the highest level, announced a 'retirement' to consider whether or not to continue in office. On Monday he will say what he has decided, opening up a range of possibilities, including returning to vote in the middle of the summer.
The opening of proceedings in relation to a complaint against Begoña Gómez, the wife of Pedro Sánchezhas been the last straw for the socialist. In the midst of the campaign against Isabel Díaz Ayuso The president has hidden behind respect for the family because of his partner's tax affairs. Ayuso had to resign, he is a victim.
Depending on whether Pedro Sánchez resigns this Monday or announces that he is stepping down (deferred resignation), one path or the other opens up. If the resignation is immediate, the process marked by the Constitution would end up leading to the King having to propose a new candidate, which would open the doors to the Moncloa to María Jesús Montero as number two in the presidential cabinet.
Elections in July 2024
The other option is that Pedro Sánchez announce that it convenes electionsBut here it would be necessary to take the timetable into account because they could not be immediate. The heavy electoral defeats of the PSOE in 2023 led Sánchez to bring forward elections to midsummer. This political strategy prevents the possibility of holding elections until 29 May. dissolve the Cortes GeneralesThe Constitution preserves this decision for one year. In other words, no matter how much Pedro Sánchez If the EU wanted to call elections, they would not begin their process for another month, thus returning to the same period as last year: elections on 21 July.
The electoral campaign for the general elections in the summer of 2024 would begin on 5 July and end on 19 July. It should be borne in mind that there will be two more elections before the summer, after the Basque elections. On 12 May are the regional elections in Catalonia, and on Sunday 9 June it will be the turn of the European elections.
Pedro Sánchez's question of confidence
There are two further avenues following the SanchezThe choice is between a question of confidence in Congress, which he would have to pass with a simple majority of the chamber, or that everything remains the same, that he does not resign and that this period of reflection has been nothing more than yet another piece of the president's surprising political strategy.
Whether he resigns, stays or there is a new president, what is certain is that the country's image is called into question, as it is unconscionable to respond with a period of reflection to the opening of proceedings for a complaint against his wife. He is "in love"; we are perplexed.
